| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| Date | Month end of listed month and year |
| Region | Which location housing data was collected for |
| Median.Sale.Price | Median sales price of homes dependent on region and month/year |
| Homes.Sold | The number of homes sold dependent on region and month/year |
| New.Listings | The number of new homes listed for sale dependent on region and month/year |
| Inventory | The total number of active listings on the market on the last day of the given time period |
| Days.on.Market | Median number of days homes sold during the period stayed on the market before going under contract. This excludes homes that spent more than a year on the market before going under contract |
| Average.Sale.To.List | How close the median home sales price was to its original listing price |
| Unrate | US unemployment rate |
| T10Y | 10-year treasury rate less 2-year treasury rate |
| M30Y | Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average in the United States |
| UMCSENT | University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment |
| Sold.Inventory.Ratio | Ratio (percent) = (Homes.Sold/Inventory) * 100 |
| Market.Type | When the Sold Inventory Ratio is > 20%, it is considered a seller’s market. When the Sold Inventory Ratio is < 15% it is considered a buyer’s market. And if the Sold Inventory Ratio is between 15-20% the market is said to be in equilibrium |
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 97.8631424 | 0.2793176 | 350.3651358 | 0.0000000 |
| RegionBoston | 0.9026848 | 0.1145817 | 7.8780882 | 0.0000000 |
| RegionChicago | -0.7496012 | 0.1137079 | -6.5923379 | 0.0000000 |
| RegionLos Angeles | 1.2277050 | 0.1145961 | 10.7133231 | 0.0000000 |
| RegionPhiladelphia | -1.5843394 | 0.1141580 | -13.8784833 | 0.0000000 |
| RegionSeattle | 0.0543675 | 0.1352373 | 0.4020159 | 0.6877559 |
| RegionWashington DC | 0.2080417 | 0.1167955 | 1.7812482 | 0.0751671 |
| Days.on.Market | -0.0245001 | 0.0021480 | -11.4060358 | 0.0000000 |
| Unrate | -0.0587881 | 0.0199996 | -2.9394608 | 0.0033614 |
| T10Y | -0.1815744 | 0.0510911 | -3.5539319 | 0.0003968 |
| M30Y | 0.1103290 | 0.0357295 | 3.0878997 | 0.0020698 |
| Sold.Inventory.Ratio | 0.0383982 | 0.0015958 | 24.0619037 | 0.0000000 |
| SeasonFall | 0.1941660 | 0.0909041 | 2.1359429 | 0.0329198 |
| SeasonSpring | 0.7517623 | 0.0907052 | 8.2879767 | 0.0000000 |
| SeasonSummer | 0.5678624 | 0.0952157 | 5.9639569 | 0.0000000 |
| Variables | Tolerance | VIF |
|---|---|---|
| RegionBoston | 0.5713282 | 1.750307 |
| RegionChicago | 0.5801425 | 1.723715 |
| RegionLos Angeles | 0.5711848 | 1.750747 |
| RegionPhiladelphia | 0.5755776 | 1.737385 |
| RegionSeattle | 0.4101319 | 2.438240 |
| RegionWashington DC | 0.5498755 | 1.818594 |
| Days.on.Market | 0.4324246 | 2.312542 |
| Unrate | 0.6224803 | 1.606477 |
| T10Y | 0.4930446 | 2.028214 |
| M30Y | 0.5397531 | 1.852699 |
| Sold.Inventory.Ratio | 0.4200181 | 2.380850 |
| SeasonFall | 0.6065913 | 1.648556 |
| SeasonSpring | 0.5777270 | 1.730921 |
| SeasonSummer | 0.5528990 | 1.808649 |
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| \(R^2_{adj}\) | 83.27% of the variability in Average Sale to List can be explained by our model |
| Region | Overall region does play a significant factor in Average Sales to List. However Seattle and Washington DC do not have significant differences from the National average. Holding all other variables constant, homes in the Boston market are 0.9 points higher than the National average, Chicago is 0.75 points lower on average, Los Angeles is 1.23 points higher on average, and Philadelphia is 1.58 points lower on average. |
| Days on Market | One day increase in days on market is associated with having a lower Sales to List of 0.02 on average |
| Unrate | One percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with having a lower Sales to List of 0.06 on average |
| T10Y | One percentage point increase in the 10-Yr Treasury rate is associated with having a lower Sales to List of 0.18 on average |
| M30Y | One percentage point increase in the 30-Yr fixed rate is associated with having a higher Sales to List of 0.11 on average |
| Sold:Inventory Ratio | One unit increase in the Sold:Inventory Ratio is associated with having a higher Sales to List of 0.04 on average |
| Season | Overall season does play a significant factor in average sales to list. On average homes in the Fall are associated with having 0.19 higher Sales to List ratios, Summer is 0.57 higher, and Spring is 0.75 higher |
| Estimate | Std. Error | z value | Pr(>|z|) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | -22.4354250 | 5.6706620 | -3.9564031 | 0.0000761 |
| Median.Sales.Price | 0.0000296 | 0.0000092 | 3.1998449 | 0.0013750 |
| New.Listings | 0.0013742 | 0.0003255 | 4.2220734 | 0.0000242 |
| Inventory | 0.0000270 | 0.0001249 | 0.2161687 | 0.8288562 |
| T10Y | 0.9388092 | 0.5792355 | 1.6207729 | 0.1050664 |
| 0 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 46 | 8 |
| 1 | 6 | 45 |
| 0 | 1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18 | 4 |
| 1 | 4 | 18 |
Reference
Prediction Cold Cool Neutral Warm Hot
Cold 19 6 1 0 0
Cool 5 168 43 13 1
Neutral 0 65 190 50 4
Warm 0 5 17 31 5
Hot 0 1 0 1 1
Accuracy: 66.45%
Reference
Prediction Cold Cool Neutral Warm Hot
Cold 5 5 0 0 0
Cool 5 66 24 6 1
Neutral 2 38 72 21 4
Warm 0 4 6 8 0
Hot 0 0 1 0 0
Accuracy: 57.09%
| Estimate | Std. Error | t value | Pr(>|t|) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Intercept) | 300049.74 | 8616.669 | 34.822009 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)1 | 63237.63 | 11196.884 | 5.647789 | 1.00e-07 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)2 | 59749.21 | 14204.099 | 4.206476 | 4.62e-05 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)3 | 83134.85 | 12722.589 | 6.534429 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)4 | 98600.44 | 13542.569 | 7.280778 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)5 | 118837.30 | 13099.674 | 9.071776 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)6 | 216045.48 | 13271.702 | 16.278656 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)7 | 194525.24 | 11013.390 | 17.662612 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)8 | 289832.95 | 21954.086 | 13.201777 | 0.00e+00 |
| ns(Date, knots = knots)9 | 226895.17 | 9780.668 | 23.198331 | 0.00e+00 |